Albirex Niigata -- Preseason Summary
In recent years, Albirex Niigata has fluctuated wildly in competitiveness, often putting on extended runs of form only to fall apart late in the year, or the following season. After finishing in a very disappointing 13th place in 2008, their 8th place finish in 2009 would seem to be an improvement, but that overlooks the fact that the team was challenging for an ACL berth for most of the season, and only dropped to eighth because of a truly horrific finish to the season.
Albirex does have a reasonably solid core squad, which can achieve mid-table mediorcrity on a consistent basis, but unfortunately the team has not done a very good job of making the next step up to become a championship contender. Last year was a perfect demonstration of the problems that the team faces – and will continue to face – so long as it retains a self—image as a second-tier club, rather than a potential title candidate. In August, just as it looked like Niigata would post their highest finish to date, the team lost the services of its scoring ace Pedro Junior, when Gamba Osaka made the Brazilian a better offer. Considering the sort of attendances that Albirex attracts on a regular basis, they SHOULD have had the money to keep Pedro Junior on the squad. The only conclusion one can make is that the team was willing to see him leave, rather than foot the bill to keep him.
This is not the first time Albirex has lost a key player in that way. Edmilson’s departure at the end of 2008 is another case in point. Considering the team's excellent fan support, and the extensive network that the team has developed to attract new talent, this is a serious disappointment. Albirex has done an extremely good job of laying the organizational foundations for a top-class team. The problem is that they really have not used their large bankroll effectively, and it is hard to avoid the impression that they will remain second-class citizens until they start shelliing out money for two or three top-drawer players to lead the team.
This year is not likely to be any more enjoyable for the long-suffering fans; on the contrary, it looks like Albirex may be even weaker than they were last season. The biggest acquisition over the winter was probably Kazuhisa Kawahara, who returns after a loan to Tochigi SC, last year. Midfielder Michael Jefferson Nascimento, acquired from JEF United, may also contribute something to the team, but generally speaking, the Mighty Swans are not looking very Mighty, this year
Albirex -- which still rivals Urawa Reds in terms of total attendances for a season -- simply hasnt used its cash flow to improve the roster. On the contrary, they continue to LOSE key players to potential rivals. None of the newcomers signed this season are even good enough to make up for the loss of wingback Gilton Ribeiro. And he was not the only key player to pack up and move on during the winter break. Midfielder Toshihiro Matsushita – who moved to FC Tokyo – may be the most serious loss, but other “squad members” like Naoto Matsuo and Minoru Chiyotanda are also gone.
About the only positive news that Albirex fans can turn to this season is the arrival of rookie coach Hisashi Kurosaki, the former Kashima Antlers and Japan NT ace who played for Albirex at the end of his career, in 2001. Kurosaki is the sort of energetic and influential figure that can often coax players to lift their game to a higher level. Many are already comparing him to Shimizu S-Pulse coach Kenta Hasegawa. But even if Kurosaki demonstrates the same skill with “team chemistry” that Hasegawa achieved in his first few years in Shimizu, it seems highly unlikely that the team will do much better than last year’s mid-table finish.
At the end of the day, the team will need to make some basic changes in its standard operating procedures if it hopes to move out of this mid-table rut. Indeed, a relegation scare might actually be beneficial in the long run, to shake Albirex out of its complacency. Although we think the team is good enough to match last season's result, they are unlikely to revisit the heights they saw at the start of last season.
2009 Finish: 8th Place
2010 Forecast: 7th-9th Place
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Kashima Antlers -- Preseason Summary
For the past three seasons the Rising Sun News has projected a second place finish for the Antlers, and every time the Mighty Herd of Ibaraki has stampeded to the title. R3eaders can rest assured that this is NOT because we underestimated the team's potential. Indeed, each time we made it clear that we thought the Antlers had a strong chance of claiming the championship. However, there were uncertainties affecting the team, which made us hesitate to crown them as preseason favourites. This year is not much different, in the sense that Kashima has all the talent, depth, organization and experience needed to win the title once more. Once again, however, we have to at least consider the alternative possibilities.
First and foremost, we need to address the issue of the ACL. This is something that we discuss at some length every year, and long-time readers may be a bit tired of hearing the same diatribe. However, the fact remains that ACL competition is a clear and inescapable obstacle to any team’s success in their domestic campaign. Looking at the lower-key attitude that AFC officials have taken to this year’s competition, it seems that even they are now starting to recognize that their hopes of creating some sort of high-profile international extravaganza to compare with Europe’s Champions League were wildly misplaced. Perhaps in time, this competition can evolve to a point where the winner can legitimately claim to be the best – or at least ONE OF the best teams in Asia. Under the current format, however, it is still a wild crap shoot in which any one of countless factors – schedule conflicts, adverse weather, long travel distances, fatigue, and above all, dodgy officiating – can prove to be more influential than football prowess.
Be that as it may, the ACL title *DOES* have a certain aura about it, if only because the Antlers’ two biggest domestic rivals have both won it, but Kashima has not. If anyone tries to tell you that this fact is somehow a reflection of the Antlers’ level of competitiveness, you have our permission to laugh loud and long while thumbing your nose in their face. But deep down, you can also be sure that the entire Antlers organization . . . from president and coaching staff down to the youngest player in the junior youth team . . . would love to eliminate this last remaining blot on their reputation. For that reason, it is quite possible that Kashima will content themselves with three consecutive league championships, and turn their focus this season to securing the ACL title. If that happens, then we suspect they will fall short of a fourth league crown, simply because it is too exhausting to successfully pursue both titles.
The Antlers made several additions to their squad in the offseason, and though there were a few departures as well, all involve marginal players who are being loaned out to give them a chance to play regularly. Though it was hard to point out any specific area of weakness last season, Kashima has picked up three players who are all potential starters, and at the very least will be useful in adding depth to key positions.
The biggest catch, arguably, is Lee Jung-Soo, who dominated the back line for Kyoto Sanga last season. When paired with Daiki Iwamasa (who has a similar ability to score on set plays) they make up a very impressive back line. If that were not enough, coach Oliveira snatched up one of his favourites – Gilton Ribeiro – from Albirex Niigata. Though the young Brazilian saw only limited action at Niigata last year, Oliveira hand-picked him to play for the J.League All-Stars team, and Gilton responded with a masterful performance. If nothing else, this will provide a solid and talented backup to Toru Araiba. But if Gilton develops as rapidly as the coach seems to believe, then it will be a further addition to what is already the J.League’s best defense. The one area of possible weakness is in the attacking zone, where Marquinhos and Motoyama are starting to show their age, Yuya Osako is still young and inconsistent, and newcomer Fellype Gabriel has yet to prove himself in the J.League.
The Antlers' hopes of a fourth consecutive league title depend in large part on how seriously they take the ACL. Last year, they were knocked out at the quarterfinal stage in a very controversial match where Ogasawara was red carded midway through the first half. Up to that point, it seemed that they might focus on continental glory, but once they were pushed out of the competition, Kashima turned its focus to the domestic prize. This year, we think the team might follow through with a bit more intensity in the ACL. Since some of the strongest potential rivals for the league crown – Nagoya Grampus and Urawa Reds – do not have ACL commitments this season, it will be all the more difficult for a team to pursue both prizes. Therefore coach Oliveira and his brain trust will probably have to make a decision, around August or September, to pour their energy into one of these titles or the other.
After considering all of the factors, we have reached exactly the same conclusion that we did in each of the past three years: The Antlers naturally have the talent to win another league trophy. However, this year may be the one when Kashima makes domestic success a second priority and concentrates more of their energies on the ACL. On that basis, we are projecting that the Antlers will finish just short of the winner’s circle, settling for an Asian title and a berth in next year’s ACL.
Of course, if history is any guide . . . .
2009 Finish: 1st Place
2010 Forecast: 1st-3rd Place
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Omiya Ardija -- Preseason Summary
This year Omiya Ardija is making its sixth straight appearance in the top-flight division. And yet, the team’s prospects for the 2010 season are just as shaky as they have been since the team entered the J1 way back in 2005. While coach Chang Woe-Ryong has given the Mighty Squirrels a clearer and more consistent philosophy, its goals are pretty modest – ensuring that the team can survive for another season in the top-flight. This is not a particularly ambitious, or inspiring goal, and given the high level of competition in the J.League this year, the team might even find itself struggling to achieve even this understated objective.
When you look at the team’s budget, the average attendances and the institutional base that Omiya can call upon, perhaps it is not surprising that the team would set its sights relatively low. But even so, we still get the sense that the Squirrels could have done a bit more in the off-season to improve their prospects of staying up. On the positive side, Ardija picked up a few players who ought to be capable of adding a bit more solidity to the defence than was the case last season. Two of these players – Yuki Fukaya and Shusuke Tsubouchi – were spirited away from destitute Oita Trinita, and both have proven themselves capable of playing regularly at the J1 level. An even more valuable addition is Kazuhiro Murakami, a tough-guy veteran signed from Kawasaki Frontale. Though he is listed as a midfielder, Murakami can play the wingback position, and is a very solid defender. Last but not least, North Korean international An Yong-Hak has returned to Japan after several years in the K.League, ad should add some “bite” to the defensive midfield.
As far as the offense is concerned, Omiya fans can at least be hopeful about the prospects of improvement. Last year an injury kept young Masahiko Ichikawa out of action for most of the year, but his performance in the first few weeks of the campaign promised to add a bit of an “edge” to the Ardija attack. If he can stay healthy this year, perhaps Omiya’s goal production will improve. Ardija also signed “Dudu” da Silva Neto, who was acquired on a loan deal at the end of last season after several successful years in the K.League. He has yet to really prove himself at the J1 level, but at least he offers the team a bit of hope on the attacking end.
Based on the team's performances in preseason matches, we think that Omiya has a good chance to fend of relegation for yet another season. However, the other teams they will face this year are also increasing in competitiveness, and there is no question that the team remains heavily dependent on their starting lineup. If a few of the regulars are sidelined by injury for any length of time, a repeat of the Oita Trinita saga is well within the realm of possibility. On that note, one very disturbing bit of trivia was noted by the writers of GoGo Omiya Ardija, a few weeks ago.
Shusuke Tsubouchi played for Vissel Kobe in 2005, the year they got relegated. As soon as the team regained the J1 they lent him out to Consadole Sapporo . . . . who were immediately relegated. Last year, Vissel again loaned Tsubouchi away . . . to the ill-fated Oita Trinita. This year he is on rental duty again, at Omiya Ardija.
On the bright side, if Ardija fall into the second division this season, at least they will have someone to blame.
2009 Finish: 13th Place
2010 Forecast: 14th-16th Place
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Shonan Bellmare -- Preseason Summary
Sometimes it is hard to believe that Bellmare was once considered one of the most competitive clubs in the J.League. Back in the mid-90s, when it boasted such players as Hidetoshi Nakata, Akira Narahashi, Makoto Kakegawa, Teruo Iwamoto, Wagner Lopes, Kazuaki Tasaka, Hong Myung-Bo and Pavel Badea, Bellmare Hiratsuka was neck and neck with its two Kanagawa rivals, the Yokohama Marinos and Flugels, with hopes of establishing itself as one of the J1 elite.
Of course, that was before a decade of mismanagement bled the club dry and allowed all of its talent to depart for greener pastures. After its reorganization under the name Shonan Bellmare, the club from the "surfers' paradise" southwest of Yokohama acquired a laid-back attitude that fit in pretty well with the summer resort lifestyle of its surroundings. Although Bellmare has a decent fan base, and usually manages to look respectable, the club is no longer even a shadow of the team it was back in the League's early years. Nevertheless, the team has gradually rebuilt its competitiveness, mainly on the backs of veteran players who are aggressively courted and asked to play out their final years in Shonan. While it may not sound like a very good “long-term strategy”, this did suffice to win the team promotion at the end of the 2009 season, albeit by the narrowest of margins.
This return to top-flight football – after a decade in the wilderness – has been widely celebrated in the press, and it seems to have ignited at least a mild resurgence of local fan support. The team is doing its utmost to encourage the trend, adopting the slogan “We’re Back” as the theme for the 2010 season. But unfortunately, one does not have to look very far to find a cautionary tale that Shonan would do well to consider. Just a few years ago and a few kilometers down the road towards Tokyo, Yokohama FC wrote a dramatic story of “resurrection” which followed an even more dramatic decline and reorganization. This recovery was built firmly on the backs of aging veterans, who were lured in to the fold by the promise of a “last hurrah” at the end of their careers.
While it did succeed in lifting Yokohama back to the J1 for the 2007 season, the recovery proved to have as much staying power as the legs of the old men who filled the locker room. Yokohama plunged immediately back into the J2, and they still have not hit bottom. Bellmare must hope that their own “old men” have a bit more gas left in the tank, and can carry the team long enough to make the transition to a younger generation of players. When you look at the birthdates of the players on the first page of the team’s roster sheet, it is hard to avoid a sense of foreboding – Jean Carlo Witte (33), Koji Sakamoto (32), Yosuke Nozawa (31), Kohei Usui, Adiel, Yoshiro Abe and Naoto Matsuo (all 30) and of course Yoshito Terakawa, who will turn 37 this season. Well . . . at least experience isn’t going to be a concern.
The truth of the matter is that Bellmare does have enough depth and enough youth to make a fairly strong run over the course of the season. But their chances of actually staying up will depend on the performances of other relegation candidates, all of whom have younger rosters. And while teams like Cerezo, Vegalta, Ardija, Sanga, Montedio and the like all have their own areas of potential weakness, in their cases you can at least look forward to the prospect that the team will improve as time goes on. Bellmare is in exactly the opposite position.
Former Japan Olympic team coach Yasuharu Sorimachi did a very good job of steering the team through the difficult spells, last season, and he has at least begun the process of shifting to a younger group of players. Nevertheless, Bellmare has to be viewed as one of the league’s weaker competitors even before the wear and tear of a long season begins to take its toll. Survival is not out of the question, but until we see how much some of the younger players can contribute to the squad, we cannot be too optimistic about the team's prospects in 2010.
2009 Finish: 3rd Place (J2)
2010 Forecast: 14th-17th Place
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Cerezo Osaka -- Preseason Summary
When the Flaming Pinks of southern Osaka first found themselves in the J2, there were high hopes that the team would be able to regroup and jump right back into the J1, in a single season. Cerezo managed to convince a lot of the team's top players to stick around for a year in the lower division, promising to show their gratitude when Cerezo returned to the J1. But after falling short in 2006, a lot of players lost faith and left the team to pursue other options. Cerezo was forced to adjust their sights and begin rebuilding.
Since then, the team has turned their sights firmly towards the future, and the contrast between Cerezo and fellow promotees Shonan Bellmare could not possibly be any more dramatic. Whereas the aging Shonan roster is studded with birth dates from the 1970s or early 80s, practically the entire Cerezo team was born after 1985. The two most notable exceptions – Teruyoshi Moniwa (28) and Ryuji Bando (31) – were both signed this season, in part to provide a bit of experience and veteran leadership to what is a very young, and yet very talented team.
Cerezo does have a number of players who have some experience under their belts, particularly in the back line where Moniwa will join with Kazuya Maeda, Taikai Uemoto and Kenji Haneda to form a reasonably “veteran” defensive unit. But the team’s “brand image” revolves around the aforementioned young guns, such as Takashi Inui, Masato Korogi and Shinji Kagawa. This attacking unit really lit up the J2 last season, and fans will be hoping that it can continue to prosper against J1 opposition. The truth, however, is that they will probably find the task a lot more difficult. While there is no doubting the longer-term promise of these players, they will need a lot of experience and testing before they mature, either physically OR emotionally.
The performance of Sanfrecce, last season, shows that a relatively young squad can sometimes win matches based on emotion and energy alone, but there were also clear indications last season to show that Sanfrecce’s lack of experience cost them victories. And in this case we are talking about players in central roles who are even a year or two younger than Kashiwagi, Makino and Hirashige were, last season.
The good news is that Cerezo managed to add a certain degree of experience in their off-season trading. In addition to Moniwa and Bando, they have signed potential starters Akihiro Ienaga, Taikai Uemoto and Daisuke Takahashi, all from Oita Trinita. Though they will need a few breaks to fall their way, we think that Cerezo is good enough to hold their spot in the J1 for another year. In fact, of the three promoted teams, their outlook is probably the best. But maintaining a position in the top-flight probably will not be as easy as Sanfrecce made it look last year. The Flaming Pinks will probably be fading pinks by the end of the long season, and it could be another two or three years before they can consider themselves safely back among the J1 regulars.
2008 Finish: 2nd Place (J2)
2009 Forecast: 13th-16th Place
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Kawasaki Frontale -- Preseason Summary
Over the past two seasons Kawasaki Frontale has managed to make the Rising Sun News look prescient, finishing almost exactly where we forecast, although not necessarily for exactly the same reasons we offered. The truth is . . . it has become almost too easy to anticipate what will happen to this team. They will put on a strong run, displaying flashes of offensive brilliance and generating lots of excitement both among their fans and in the sporting press. And then just when it looks like they are finally going to break their long drought and capture their first piece of silverware, the Blue Dolphins will turn on one another in a self-destructive feeding frenzy, create a scene that earns them the disapproval of important people, and after some humble introspection, will limp across the finish line in second place. Last season they managed to do this not once, but twice – both in the league title campaign and in the Nabisco Cup! So who is bold enough to predict that this year will be any different?
In case you were wondering, that was a rhetorical question. And if you are looking for reasons to believe that the Blue Dolphins of the Kanagawa will somehow turn over a new leaf, or write a new chapter, or break the old mold, or plow a new furrow, or break the curse, or bury the skeletons of the past, or cast off the albatross, or make use of some other hackneyed, pathetic, overused metaphor . . . . well, youre looking in the wrong place. We only employ pathetic, overused metaphors when talking about teams like the Urawa Reds or Gamba Osaka.
Kawasaki Frontale definitely has the quality, the organization, the personnel and the coaching savvy to contest any one of the titles on offer, this season. Perhaps even to contest all of them. But the question is not whether this team is good enough to finish second. They have proven that time and time again. What we do need to ask ourselves is: “what exactly does this team need to do in order to actually WIN something?” Fans in Kanagawa probably are not going to like the answer.
In our view, the problem that this team has – and perhaps always will have – lies in the very skill and individual brilliance that have carried the team towards the top end of the J.League table. They have a vast selection of offensive weapons, ranging from the sleek and speedy rapier thrusts of Juninho to the clever dribbling and acrobatic grace of Vitor Junior, the aerial power of Yajima, the Raging Bull physicality of Chong Tese, the surgeonlike skill of Kengo Nakamura to dissect defences, the sudden incisive finishing skill of Junichi Inamoto and the bafflingly elusive opportunism of Hiroyuki Taniguchi. But every one of these players loves to be the hero. None of them enjoys lurking in the shadows and nodding with approval as a teammate takes the bow. That is a critical failing in a team sport like football.
While Frontale may not suffer from the dreaded “Blind Faith Syndrome”, which dooms collections of star players to utter failure, their affliction is similar in many respects. When the season is on the line and its up to ONE player to step forward and be the hero . . . all eleven step forward. Then they have a wild fistfight to see who will take the kick. And when one of them finally prevails, he steps forward and sends his shot clanging off the crossbar. The sad thing is . . . . thats not even a metaphor, it’s a precise description of what happened to the team in a key match at the end of the 2009 season.
As we have discussed at some length, elsewhere on this site, the ACL is now a critically important factor to consider when making any forecast about the J.League title chase. The "powers that be" -- not only in the AFC and JFA bureaucracies but also in the sports press -- want to pretend that the ACL competition can be integrated with domestic league action in Asia with no major disruption. Their "conventional wisdom", to use the oxymoron, insists that Asian teams will eventually figure out how to contest both domestic campaigns and the ACL simultaneously, in exactly the same way that European teams are able to balance their domestic commitments with participation in the UEFA Cup and Champions League. However, this is simply laughable. Any team that wants to go a long way in the ACL must accept that their domestic performances are going to suffer. That is a proven fact which has prevailed since the competition was created, and we do not expect this correlation to change any time in the near future.
That being the case, teams that qualify for the ACL must decide, sometime during the first three months of the season, how much energy and effort they will invest in the Asian competition. Both common sense and past history show that a team can make a few long-haul journeys for away matches in Asia and still maintain enough energy and sharpness to perform well in the domestic competition. But the longer these ACL commitments continue, the more difficulty a team will have trying to contest the domestic championship. With Frontale, the team has the added problem of having players (and perhaps management as well) who want to have EVERYTHING. It will not be easy for Frontale to balance the demands of ACL and league participation, but if they do manage to claim a title, we suspect that it will be the ACL. For one thing, the Asian championship tends to favour teams that score a lot, and the wide variety of weapons that Kawasaki can call upon will make them a strong competitor in cup competition. Frontale's only real weakness is in the defence, which tends to be less of a shortcoming in the ACL than it is in the J.League. As Gamba Osaka showed in 2008, excessive reliance on offence may be a problem for teams in the league campaign, but it can be a benefit in the ACL where one or two away goals can give a team a major competitive edge.
Since history has shown that teams which proceed to the final of the ACL rarely perform well in their domestic competition, we base our forecast for Frontale in 2010 on the assumption that they will be one of the top challengers for the ACL title. Assuming that the Blue Dolphins advance to the final of the ACL, they could fall as far down the table as fourth or fifth. However, if the other ACL teams also are distracted by the competition, Frontale can probably manage to make it into the top three. An early exit from the ACL would change the calculation significantly, and it would be a serious mistake to rule out ANY possibility of a Frontale league title. But based on experience, we are going to go with the prediction that has served us so well in the past.
2009 Finish: 2nd Place
2010 Forecast: 2nd Place
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Gamba Osaka -- Preseason Summary
Since their title winning run five years ago, Gamba Osaka has not performed particularly well in domestic competitions. Although the team certainly has done a good job of representing the J.League in Asian competitions, their eighth place finish in the league during the year they won the ACL was a bit embarassing to both the club itself and to the organizers of Asia's (supposedly) "Preeminent Competition". After all, what does it say about the ACL when the team that finishes second must put up with snide put-downs such as: "You lost to the eight-best team in Japan!"
Last year, the Osaka Boys recovered their domestic form somewhat, finishing in third place and thus qualifying based on league performance for the first time since 2007. In recent years the Emperor’s Cup has been Gamba’s most effective ticket to the ACL, and the fact that this competition takes place after Asian commitments have been completed reinforces our view that it is always going to be hard for teams to focus on winning the Asian title and ALSO doing well in the league title chase.
The critical question for Gamba fans, therefore, is how much importance they will place on domestic success, and how much effort will they devote to reclaiming the Asian crown? As we have noted in the past, Gamba seems to be a team that is well suited to cup play, particularly in the knockout round where their ability to score “away” goals can give them a critical advantage. Therefore, the team’s level of interest in pursuing another ACL crown will be a key consideration when trying to determine how much of a chance Gamba has of winning the league title.
Comparatively speaking, Gamba has not done as much to enhance their competitiveness during the offseason as the other top contenders, particularly Kashima and Nagoya. Their three acquisitions were an unproven (albeit very promising) Brazilian striker, a teenaged Brazilian midfielder who showed some promise at Ehime, in some briefs appearance late last year, and an 18-year old midfielder who may one day replace Yasuhito Endo as playmaker, but has a long way to go before he can be viewed as a meaningful asset. None of these players is likely to step in immediately and demand playing time, so while the changes may pay off in the longer term, it is hard to consider them as factors in the league chase, except perhaps at the end of the season when Ze Carlos might offer depth when Cho, Lucas and Pedro Junior are starting to run out of gas.
Looking at the entire roster, from top to bottom, it is clear that Gamba has the POTENTIAL to win this year's league championship. However, it also reminds one of just how much the team relies on a cadre of thirtyish veterans to provide the motive force behind their title ambitions. This, too, is a good argument for focusing on a cup campaign rather than an exhausting league title chase. Gamba has perhaps the oldest starting eleven in the entire J.League, and though certainly not "over the hill", nearly all of the core players are between the ages of 29 and 34. The physical drain of a title campaign (particularly when one also has the ACL competition to contend with) wears down even the youngest and fittest of players by the end of the season. Obviously, the older you are, the sooner this effect starts to kick in.
As we have noted above, the ACL format seems to be well suited to offensive teams. Coach Nishino certainly does not need anyone to explain this fact to him, nor to point out that the team's strongest league rivals this year – Frontale, Antlers, Grampus and Reds – are all better suited to chasing the domestic crown. Even if they focus all of their energies on a domestic title this year, Gamba would probably find it to be a real dogfight. If, instead, they place top priority on the ACL title, they seem to have the necessary tools to accomplish the task.
Therefore, we forecast another strong Asian performance from the Osaka Boys in 2010. And for that very reason, we expect them to be also-rans in the J.League title chase.
2009 Finish: 3rd Place
2010 Forecast: 5th-7th Place
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Nagoya Grampus -- Preseason Summary
Nagoya Grampus has spent the last decade struggling to earn the sort of “respect” that comes with success. Ever since the team raided the Yokohama Yard Sale and snatched away the cream of the Flugels youth, they have insistently begged press and football fandom to pay attention, and treat them with the sort of respect that a title challenger deserves. But unfortunately, despite fielding some of the top talent in the J.League, over the years, they just haven’t managed to win any titles. And respect is something that tends to be in short supply around “pretenders to the throne”. As desperately as the team might WANT to be taken seriously, they just don’t get no respect. No respect at all.
It would be a real pleasure to predict that this year will be different. Lets face it, everyone is tired of seeing the Antlers win titles, but nobody thinks that Gamba has the stamina to knock them off the perch, Frontale is bound to self-destruct, and nobody in their right mind wants to deal with all the fanfare, unjustified swaggering and hyperbole about “the biggest team in the entire universe” that would ensue if the Reds were to win another crown. It would be really nice to see the Red Whales take the league title. REALLY nice.
Now lets discuss reality.
To be perfectly honest, Nagoya does seem to have the inside track this year. They do not have any ACL commitments, and thus will be fresher than most of the other top candidates. They have all the tools that one normally associates with a championship team – a cool veteran keeper, some big bodies in the back line, a firey and inspirational leader in the centre of the defence, a number of quick, busy and energetic players to move the ball around in midfield, and some big men up front to serve as the target for the last pass. The only thing that might be a question mark is whether any of the candidates – Mu Kanazaki, Igor Burzanovic or Yoshizumi Ogawa – is really ready to assume the role of field general and director of the offence. But apart from that one question mark, all the pieces seem to be in place.
The question, of course, is whether Grampus can put the pieces together and function effectively as a team. The talent that Nagoya had at its disposal back at the end of the 90s was surely equal to what we see today, yet those teams never won any silverware. If the Red Whales are to finally claim the Holy Grail, then the task of molding all that talent into an effective unit will be the most important one of all. And while there is no questioning his passion, his knowledge of the game, and his desire, coach Dragan Stojkovic has yet to demonstrate the ability to bring players together and make them better than the sum of their parts. Surely even the most faithful Nagoya fan will admit that the coaching issue – or perhaps it would be better to say, “the chemistry question” – is their biggest concern.
During the offseason, Nagoya picked up three very important newcomers to support their bid for a first league title. The highest profile, naturally, goes to Marcus Tulio Tanaka who left Urawa at the end of last season amid much acrimony, and took his talent and temper down the Tokaido Road to Tokai. Tulio can certainly fill the gap left in the back line left by Maya Yoshida’s departure (to VVV Venlo in Holland). He also will bring to the team a degree of intensity and combativeness that it seemed to be lacking in recent years. In our view, though, Grampus may discover that two other newcomers are as important – if not more important – to their title hopes than Tulio.
Mu Kanazaki was signed on the cheap after Oita Trinita famously imploded at the end of 2009. The incident may raise bittersweet recollections of the Yokohama Yard Sale which took place almost exactly one decade earlier, but since Seigo Narazaki is the only player who will have direct memories of that historical baggage, it probably will not be a source of self-doubt for the players. Kanazaki has the potential to resolve that lingering question mark about who is calling the shots in midfield. His dribbling prowess is already well known, but he also has very good vision, and seems to possess the temperament needed to take charge and direct traffic in the centre of the pitch. In addition to Kanazaki and Tulio, Nagoya acquired Danilson Rodrigues, a young Brazilian striker who displayed excellent finishing skills at Consadole last season. Paired with Josh Kennedy in the front line, Danilson just might be the key needed to make all the puzzle pieces fit together.
After last season’s disappointing ninth-place finish (exacerbated, it is true, by a long run in the ACL campaign) it would take a bold prognosticator indeed to predict a Nagoya title. OK, the Rising Sun News does have a history of making bold predictions, but this time we want to leave a bit of room for backsliding, if the Red Whales prove to be a throwback to the disappointing pretenders of 1999. Therefore we are not going to install them as our top pick; but we WILL place them on the top step of the ladder, alongside joint favourites Kashima. In the end, Nagoya’s hopes of lifting the league title will depend a lot on how much the Antlers (and other ACL participants as well) focus on Asian play, but the potential is certainly there. If any team can keep the Herd of Ibaraki from grazing on another domestic trophy, it will probably be Nagoya.
2007 Finish: 9th Place
2008 Forecast: 1st-4th Place
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Jubilo Iwata-- Preseason Summary
Two years ago, Jubilo Iwata came within a single, wayward, last-second header of spending a year in the second division. If not for the squandered opportunities of their J2 opponents, Jubilo could have joined Tokyo Verdy in the ranks of "formerly great teams that have dug their own competitive graves". Fans of the Blue Budgies probably want to view this narrow escape as a turning point, and nurture hopes that last season’s slightly more tolerable 11th place finish is the first step on the road to a revival. After all, Jubilo boasted two of the most prolific scorers in the league, last season, and that despite the fact that two established sources of offence – Brazilian midfielder Gilsinho and Irish-Japanese striker Robert Cullen – spent most of the year in the trainer’s office undergoing rehabilitation. But if anyone is looking at the team this spring and asking themselves "how far can Jubilo rebound?”, it might be best for them to take a cold shower. The problems that have plagued the Jubilo organization over the past decade are by no means “solved”, and it is very much an open question whether the team is on its way back up, or just taking a time out before hitting the skids again.
The good news is that Iwata has finally banished the heroes of yesteryear to the walls of the trophy room, where they belong. After putting Gon Nakayama on a plane to the wilds of Northern Japan, the only reminder of Jubilo’s “glory days” is Norihiro Nishi, who was a fresh-faced youth of 21 and only a minor contributor the last time Jubilo won a title. Though coach Yanagishita is also something of a relic of the bygone era, at least he can serve as a reminder of positive attitudes and winning football, rather than excess and decline at the Old Boys’ Club. Though we have our doubts about whether he can lead Jubilo back to its former place among the league's top contenders, he does have a lot of experience and a good understanding of what it takes to succeed in the J1.
On the other hand, Jubilo can no longer be described as a “young team with lots of promise”. Most of the players who entered the team during the early years of this century, and seemed to hold out such great promise, have already reached “middle age” in terms of their playing career. Though guys like Cullen, Ryoichi Maeda, Daisuke Nasu, Sho Naruoka, Kota Ueda and Yusuke Inuzuka do possess a fair amount of talent, they have already had their chance to “blossom” yet only produced a few dull leaves and seeds, and no flowers or fruit to speak of. Jubilo can count on the players from this group to provide steady and professional performances, but if they are going to find a spark to revive the team and put it back on the road to success, that will have to come from some other source.
The “wave of the future”, if Jubilo ever finds one, will have to be created by the clutch of Korean players that have crossed the Tsushima Straits over the past two years and provided a glimmer of hope for Jubilo fans. Many sportswriters have claimed that striker Lee Keun-Ho singlehandedly saved Jubilo from relegation last year. But despite the circumstantial evidence of his impact, it is unlikely that he could have saved the team by himself. Rather, Lee was able to tap into a rich well of tradition that has lain buried and unused at Iwata for several years – the swift, sudden, incisive offensive thrust that drives the ball upfield in a streak of one-touch penetration and then slices into the middle, cutting the defence to ribbons. Though this sort of attack was honed to near perfection at Jubilo in the late 90s, it also has come to represent the single greatest strength of Korean football, for many international fans. When Lee was on the pitch, Jubilo suddenly seemed to rediscover their old instincts, and the result was a goal bonanza, not only for Lee himself, but also for Ryoichi Maeda.
This year, Lee is joined at Jubilo by two countrymen: Park Joo-ho, who looked quite promising at Kashima last season before falling out of the lineup during the critical title chase, and Lee Gang-Jin, who not only has a solid resume from his years at K.League challengers Busan I’Park, but also is familiar with the J.League, having played for Tokyo Verdy breifly back in 2004-05. It is certainly too soon to expect this Korean Cadre to turn Jubilo into a title contender, but we do think that there is some real potential in the relationship between these newcomers and the once-great J.League team.
There is, however, one very big “IF” that looms over Jubilo’s longer-term hopes. When you build a structure on the foundation of key foreign players, you can often see the entire structure crumble overnight if the hired guns decide to take a more lucrative offer and move overseas. Last season, Keun-Ho almost upset the apple cart by accepting a move to France at midseason, just as Jubilo was starting to develop some momentum. We also know how sudden player departures have damaged the hopes of teams like Albirex, Grampus, Gamba and FC Tokyo. If Jubilo is to move into the top-half of the table this season, and develop momentum for a longer-term recovery, then they must find a way to earn the loyalty of their Korean stars, and ensure that they will stick around for at least a few years. Otherwise, the team would be better off accepting a spot at the lower end of the J1 for a few years, and set about rebuilding on the base of younger, domestic players.
In our preseason forecast last year, we noted that “Jubilo Iwata is not a 16th place team”, and forecast a recovery to around midtable. That projection turned out to be pretty accurate, but the manner in which Jubilo accomplished its recovery has actually made the Rising Sun News LESS optimistic about the long-term hopes. If the team DOES manage to develop a strong Korean flavor and can stick with the same philosophy over a period of several years, then perhaps we will see the team climb back into the ranks of the contenders. But it is equally possible that Park and the two Lees will hop on the first plane that a European or Middle Eastern club sends calling, and the result could be truly disastrous. For the time being we will split the difference, and predict another mid-table finish.
2009 Finish: 11th Place
2010 Forecast: 10th-12th Place
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Yokohama Marinos -- Preseason Summary
Although the Yokohama Marinos have had their ups and downs over the years, rarely has the team exuded the sort of disarray and chaotic cluelessness that were the hallmarks of last season’s campaign. At the start of the year, Yokohama frightened away every prospective manager who could be convinced to show up for an interview, by talking repeatedly about budget cuts, belt-tightening and “making do with limited resources”. In the end, caretaker coach Kokichi Kimura was allowed to keep the job that he inherited at the end of 2008, when the team fired Takeshi Kuwabara. But that decision was anything BUT a vote of confidence. Indeed, an inside source told the Rising Sun News, in April of last year, that the only reason Kimura kept his job was that “nobody else in their right mind would accept the paltry salary that was on offer.”
Although early-season concerns turned out to be slightly overstated, and the team managed to finish squarely in the middle of the table, the results that the Bay City Seagulls achieved were a testament to Blatter’s Law: If you adopt strategies that are absolutely insane, opponents will be so confused that you will be able to beat them on occasion, and manage to keep your head above water. In the simplest terms, Kimura’s strategy was to change the formation and starting eleven a minimum of twice each month, which not only kept the players relatively fresh but also made it impossible for opposing coaches to develop a coherent counter-strategy. To an extent, this did work. But it played havoc on team cohesion and camaraderie. A number of youngsters emerged who seem to have the talent and initiative to achieve success in the J.League. But they never seemed to develop a good team chemistry, or acquire the self-confidence needed to win tough matches.
This year, the Yokohama brain trust finally decided to stop dithering and hired a “real” coach, albeit one with very little experience. Kazushi Kimura (no relation to the unlamented Kokichi) is a former Marinos star player who is best known, in recent years, as a colour commentator on SkyPerfecTV. While he may lack a formal coaching resume, Kimura does understand football, he knows how to manage players, and most important of all, he has experience dealing with the Marinos bureaucracy. His first press conference after taking over the head coaching job was like a gust of fresh air through stagnant, musty corridors. When asked what the team’s problems were last season he replied “The players were all pathetic.” Given his personal accomplishments and reputation, Kazushi Kimura can say something like that and still maintain respect. He clearly is not satisfied with what the team did in 2009, but he seems to be giving the players constructive pressure, not DEstructive pressure.
The one lingering concern for the Marinos involves former midfield general Shunsuke Nakamura, who is discussing a possible return. Last season the team played dating games with Nakamura for a full six months, but only managed to create a huge distraction for everyone involved. This year the same problem could arise if the Marinos do not act swiftly, in one direction or another. To be honest, we do not think that it will have a MAJOR impact on Yokohama’s prospects this season, even if Nakamura does come back to Yokohama in the next few weeks -- and there is absolutely no guarantee of that happening. While Nakamura does have talent, it takes a long time for players to work their way into a team. And for a group that has suffered far too much locker-room friction and internal fractiousness in recent years, the effort to make him “feel at home” might be more trouble than it is worth.
Nevertheless, Marinos fans should probably adopt a more optimistic attitude this year, since the general direction of the team does seem to be a positive one. While it is true that veterans Yuji Nakazawa and Naoki Matsuda, among others, are starting to lose their sharpness as age creeps up, a lot of youngsters emerged last season who hold out hope for the future. Midfielder Ariajasuru Hasegawa and striker Kazuma Watanabe will probably establish themselves as regular starters this season (after being force to play “musical chairs” all last year) while Yusuke Tanaka, Takashi Kanai and Masakazu Tashiro seem capable of stepping in when the defensive veterans need a break. There is certainly a good base on which to build for the future. But it might take some time before the Marinos can start playing effectively as a unit
At the moment there are so many question marks hanging over the team that it is difficult to make any sort of an “informed” prediction. Will Shunsuke come back? Will Bastianini prove to be an unexpected gem, or a cheap imitation diamond? Can veterans like Matsuda, Nakazawa, Kawai, Hato and Shimizu keep up the pace for another year? None of these questions can be answered until the season actually begins. For the time being we assume that the Marinos will be at least as good as last year. But they are definitely one of the biggest “wild cards” in the league this season
2009 Finish: 10th Place
2010 Forecast: 8th-10th Place
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Montedio Yamagata -- Preseason Summary
Last year, almost everyone with an opinion was certain that Montedio Yamagata would retreat meekly to the J2, after one brief look at first-tier football. In our preseason forecast, the Rising Sun News was a bit more generous, and conceded that there was an outside chance that they could survive. However, this was by no means an indication of some remarkable insight or predictive skill. Instead, it was simply based on the understanding that small, closely-knit teams with few real “star” players can often manage to stay afloat on the basis of teamwork, fighting spirit, and good old-fashioned hard work. This has always been the case in the J.League, and it sometimes holds true in overseas leagues, as well. So before anyone praises this writer for “keen insight”, lets make it clear that it had little to do with our understanding of Montedio. We viewed this team as something of an enigma last year, and it is just as inscrutable this season. The only safe bet is that they are not going to win any silverware.
The Mountain Kings of Yamagata preserved their spot in the top-flight division in much the same way that they got there – hustle, teamwork, and a very un-ambitious game plan (some might even call it “anti-football”). The main goal is to prevent the other team from scoring. If that can be accomplished, then all you need is a bit of luck and a tall, combative player or three in the opponent’s penalty box. Yu Kobayashi and Tatsuya Furuhashi managed to create enough single-handed offence last year to keep Montedio up, and this year the team has added former Kashima Antlers reserve Yuzo Tashiro to increase the number of options in generating “Hail Mary offence”. Indeed, you could get away with describing Tohoku as “the Kashima Recycling Centre”, considering all the former Antlers players who have been scooped up by Montedio and their nearby rivals, Vegalta Sendai. In addition to Tashiro and Chikashi Masuda, who are playing for Yamagata on loan this season, other players with former ties to Kashima include Kohei Miyazaki, Tatsuya Ishikawa, Katsuyuki Miyazawa and Ryo Kobayashi. Vegalta also boasts six former Antlers, and many others have been through the Montedio or Vegalta organizations in the past. While this does imply that the individuals in question have a fair level of skill, it also suggests that they are not QUITE good enough to succeed on a real J1 contender.
The impressive work ethic and enthusiasm which Montedio demonstrated last season is certainly admirable. But it is hard to derive much joy from seeing them play. Perhaps the addition of some creative players, like Matsuda and Tomi Shimomura, can make the sight a bit less painful in 2010. Unfortunately, we have a hard time picturing this team as a long-term J1 survivor. When you have a group of dedicated, hard-nosed players who are willing to run their legs off every weekend, there is always hope. If three other teams perform poorly enough in 2009, Montedio may manage to evade relegation for another season.
However, we have a strange premonition that one of the two Tohoku clubs is not going to make the cut next year. And when comparing the two head to head, we have to say that Vegalta seems to have a slightly better chance of staying up than their rivals across the mountains to the west..
2009 Finish: 15th Place
2008 Forecast: 16th-18th Place
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Urawa Reds -- Preseason Summary
Two years ago, when the Urawa Reds press corps fanned out and began regaling the media with descriptions of their plans for the season, punctuated repeatedly with references to “the Best Team in Asia®” or at minimum “the Biggest Team in Asia®”, a surprisingly large number of people in the international sports press seemed to lap it up like a hungry kitten encountering a bowl of warm milk. Perhaps it is understandable that members of the football “establishment” throughout Asia were so eager to see a big, media-friendly, money-spinning entity emerge, so they could slap its face on t-shirts, plush toys and kiddies’ cereal boxes and start churning out the hype. To see the mainstream journos and TV talking heads fall all over themselves in raving about “Yoooh-wah-wah” (as one Australian reporter kept pronouncing it) was no surprise at all. It was really to be expected.
What did come as a bit of a surprise – at least to cynical oldtimers like this writer – was how quickly the rest of Japanese footballdom turned their backs, pinched their noses and walked away. Of course anyone with a hint of common sense knew that the Reds were a lot less impressive on the football pitch than they were in the pages of a fanboy football magazine. But considering how well the star-making machinery functions in European leagues, we were pleasantly surprised to see almost ALL of the grassroots fans in Japan shake their heads and offer a polite “No Thank You” when asked to embrace Reds-mania. Oh to be sure, the Saitama Red Army is just as big and just as loud (not to mention just as self-deluded) as ever. But most of the non-Saitaman folks who jumped on the bandwagon were exactly the same ones who are now out in the park pretending to enjoy curling, twittering to their friends about AYU and EXILE, and downloading stylish clothes to put on their “Keitai Abbatar”. The Reds are last year’s model. And in Japan, last year’s model only gets attention if they get arrested for a nude, drug-fueled cabaret in Roppongi at 3AM.
While its nice to know that football fans in Japan have overcome their faddish childhood ways, and now support teams for reasons other than what was featured the latest issue of “Cawaii”, the demise of the Big Red Fad may actually be the best thing that has happened to the Reds since Guido-ism. For several years now, we have had the distinct impression that the Reds organization had become too obsessed with “star power” and “fame”, and if it really wanted to start winning titles, the team would have to get back in touch with its gritty, hard-working blue-collar roots. When coach Volker Finke arrived in Japan, he seemed to express exactly this intention, and based on the decisions he made during his first year in charge, he seems to be following through on the plan to clear out all the preening prima-donnas and build a younger, more modest, but hopefully also more successful football team.
At first look, it is easy for a non-Reds fan to be pessimistic about the team’s prospects this season. We all knew that Tulio’s strong, brash personality was going to conflict with the stoic, no-nonsense spartanism of Herr Finke. But even so, Finke himself would probably concede that Tulio’s departure is a serious loss to the team. Furthermore, there are still plenty of peacocks strutting around the Reds locker room, and this is bound to be a distraction until the team can figure out how to unload players like Naohiro Takahara, Ryota Tsuzuki, Yuki Abe and Tadaaki Hirakawa. Some of the younger players have also shown a fondness for basking in the spotlight, and though that is not necessarily a “problem”, it does indicate that the coach will have to keep a firm hand on the leash and try to develop more of a team spirit – a sense of self-sacrifice for the sake of the group – than has prevailed in the recent past.
But there are also good reasons to believe that the worst excesses of the “the Best Team in Asia®” Reds have been quelled, and the team’s core players, at least, are ready to keep their egos in check for the good of the team. We have seen from last year’s performances that talented younger players like Genki Haraguchi, Naoki Yamada, Tsukasa Umesaki and Sergio Escudero will be given opportunities to play, and to develop, regardless of whether this “hurts the feelings” of a veteran. With the talent at his disposal, coach Finke certainly has the raw materials to create a championship team. It might take a while, but the team does seem to be moving in the right direction, at last.
The question people in Saitama are asking is – how long before we see some concrete results? Since the bandwagon-jumpers have not ALL been cleared out yet, it might be best for the team to take things slowly. Coach Finke certainly has refrained from talking about how many titles he intends to win in 2010, and even the head office seems to be toning down their rhetoric. But that does not mean Urawa should be excluded from the calculations when handicapping the title chase this season. They have a very talented base of players already, and they have added some very useful pieces with the addition of midfielder Yosuke Kashiwagi and defender Matt Spiranovic. But perhaps the most important advantage Urawa enjoys, this season, is the fact that they do not have ACL commitments to distract them from the goal.
The ACL issue is a very important one, as we have discussed many times in the past. And in Urawa’s case, their prospects of glory in 2010 are going to depend to a fairly high degree on how far their rivals (Kashima, Osaka and Kawasaki) manage to progress in the ACL. If all three are distracted by long-distance excursions during the late summer and early autumn, then the league title chase MIGHT boil down to a clash between the Reds and Tulio Tanaka’s new team – Nagoya Grampus. However, we suspect that at least one, and perhaps two of those ACL participants will manage to perform the balancing act, and remain competitive in the domestic chase. On that basis we suspect that 2010 will be another “team-building” year for the famously long-term-oriented Herr Finke. But with just a bit of luck, we think they can claim an ACL berth for themselves next season.
2007 Finish: 6th Place
2008 Forecast: 3rd-6th Place
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Sanfrecce Hiroshima -- Preseason Summary
Last season we described Sanfrecce Hiroshima as “the biggest wild card in the J1”, and noted that forecasting the order of teams at the top end of the table basically boiled down to answering two questions – “How much focus will ACL participants put on their Asian commitments?” and How will Sanfrecce affect the calculus?” Those comments turned out to be pretty accurate, though we did not anticipate that Sanfrecce would actually climb into ACL territory themselves. The Purple Archers really surpassed anyone’s expectations in 2009, and it is going to be extremely hard for them to match last season’s accomplishments. That is particularly true when you consider that the team’s most inspirational player – Yosuke Kashiwagi – is now playing for one of the team’s biggest rivals.
Looking at their roster for 2010, it is very hard to picture Sanfrecce repeating their fourth-place finish. Last year the veterans all turned in an inspirational performance, but guys like Koji Hattori and Koji Nakajima are surely approaching their expiration date now. Even Hisato Sato is starting to look a bit long in the tooth. The team did bring in a number of players who will add energy and enthusiasm up front – notably, Tadanari Lee and Masato Yamazaki. However, they did not acquire any midfield orchestrator who can step into the driver’s seat and guide the team the way that Kashiwagi did last season. The byword in predicting J.League outcomes has always been: “Never say never”. But even so, we really find it hard to envision a scenario in which Sanfrecce can again claim an ACL berth (much less a league title).
But this may turn out to be a good thing, in the long run. The Purple Archers have a fantastic youth programme, and seem capable of churning out a new generation of highly promising kids year after year after year. But up to now, they have not done as good a job in cultivating the local fan base. To build a championship team, Sanfrecce is going to need a larger revenue stream, and that can only come from increasing attendances and/or . . . . . winning high-profile titles. That’s right. Sanfrecce seems to be the perfect candidate for an ACL run. Not only would it be a very important achievement for the team, and one that would elevate fan interest, but an ACL run does not have the same sort of “negative trade-off” that other J.League teams must consider. The Sanfrecce organization is probably well aware that they are lucky to be in the Asian competition this year, and that it could be several years before a similar opportunity comes along. Furthermore, they would have a hard time even making a run at the league title this season, much less winning it. But at the same time, the team has plenty of young, energetic bodies to throw into the fray, so they needn’t worry about a relegation fight even if they are putting all their energy into the ACL.
The acquisition of goalkeeper Shusaku Nishikawa provides the sort of solidity and “big-game quality” between the posts that can be so valuable in a cup competition. And though Sanfrecce is not really a “high scoring” team, they do have a diversity of weapons, and a range of offensive options which might give them the advantage in the home-and-away format of the knockout round. Best of all, they have as many as two open spots to fill with foreign talent, if it should be needed. Once they secure a berth in the knockout round of the ACL, the team will pick up an immediate cash boost that could be used to sign a “hired gun” for the stretch run. This is something that several other ACL teams did over the summer, last year, and we suspect that the team management is already giving this issue some careful thought.
Of course, we also need to keep in mind that the team's relative youth has some severe negative aspects. Though they should have the energy needed to keep them going during long overseas trips, and plenty of enthusiasm to drive their title bid, Sanfrecce might be upended by a lack of poise and veteran experience, when the pressure of semi-final and title matches sets in. Only time will tell whether this team has what it takes to win the ACL. But we think they should certainly be viewed as a legitimate candidate. And this is why it is so hard to gauge the team's prospects for the coming season. If Sanfrecce does go far in the ACL, it might cost them in the domestic campaign. A bottom-half finish is not only possible, but downright likely. On the other hand, if the team is knocked out of Asian competition early, the players will turn their energy and emotion towards the league campaign. And though a title is probably out of the question, a 4th or 5th place finish is not. While it is certainly possible that Sanfrecce could finish below mid-table, we think that the Purple Archers are now well on their way to a place among the league contenders, and if they make it into the knockout round of the ACL, you can be sure that the Rising Sun News will be 100% behind them, all the way to the final at National Stadium, this November.
2009 Finish: 4th Place
2010 Forecast: 6th-9th Place
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Kyoto Sanga -- Preseason Summary
After a decade of bouncing back and forth between the J1 and J2, the Purple Yo-Yo -- also known as Kyoto Sanga – has finally come to rest in the upper division. This year marks the third consecutive season of J1 football for the Purple Phoenix – the longest spell that Kyoto has spent in any division since the J2 was created. Last year they put together a very experienced team with a fair depth of talent, and a very well organized game plan. Yet despite all the positive signs that have emerged in the Ancient Japanese Capital, in recent years, dedicated fans are looking toward the 2010 season with more than a little bit of concern. While the team may not suffer the “Yo-Yo” reputation any longer, they really have not done much to build a team that can compete effectively at the J1 level over a prolonged period. Their youth programme still leaves much to be desired (can you name any J1 players who graduated from the Kyoto Sanga Youth?), and while fan attendance at matches has shown SOME signs of improvement, the team is still one of the most weakly supported in the J1.
The competition that Sanga will face in 2010 is, if anything, more intense than what they faced over the past two seasons. And even if you adopt the most optimistic assumptions possible about their new foreign recruits, it still seems that the roster is weaker than it was last season. Key veterans like Sidiclei and Yuto Sato have departed, as did the team’s most impressive player in 2009, Lee Jung-Soo. Taking their place are a group of unknown and untested youngsters, and one Kyoto Sanga old-boy who has come home to play out the final years of his career, in midfielder Shingo Suzuki. Other key players like Atsushi Yanagisawa, Yusuke Nakatani and Yuichi Mizutani are nearing retirement age, and cannot be counted on to provide the answers to the latest challenge, week in and week out.
Naturally, if newcomers like Dutra, Thiego, Kwak Tae-Hwi, Koken Kato and Takumi Miyayoshi are able to step in and make important contributions right away, Sanga should be able to remain clear of relegation danger for yet another year. However, even in the best case scenario it is hard to see them climbing above midtable. And if the team should suffer any injuries to key players . . . well . . . the road back to the J2 will certainly look familiar.
2009 Finish: 12th Place
2010 Forecast: 13th-16th Place
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Shimizu S-Pulse -- Preseason Summary
Ever since coach Kenta Hasegawa took over the reins at Shimizu S-Pulse, five years ago, the team has continuously shown signs of climbing into legitimate contention for a title, but has never quite managed to deliver. Last season the team edged in front of the pack with six weeks to go, only to collapse in the final stretch and finish completely out of the money (and ACL participation), in sixth place. Though it isn’t a complete disappointment, considering the flashes of quality they showed over the course of the season, fans in Shizuoka are growing tired of the team’s prolonged pause on “the doorstep to success” and want to see a payoff this season, or else . . . .
Though we have not written off their chances of a dark-horse title run, it is starting to look like the Wingheads will find themselves in pretty much the same place this year that they have occupied for the past four or five. That is to say – lots of pretty balloons, cake and confetti, but no presents. The biggest acquisition of the off-season was Shinji Ono, who has finally drawn down the curtain on his injury-plagued international career and returned to his home ground in Shizuoka to close out an illustrious, but slightly disappointing career. If Ono were even half the player he was in 2002, when (as the creative force behind Feyenoord) he was narrowly outvoted as UEFA Cup MVP in favour of local boy Pierre vanHoojdonk, we would probably install S-Pulse as the favourites to claim this season’s league crown. But sadly, injuries have taken a serious toll on the midfield general, and unless he enjoys his longest run of health since 2003, we suspect that he will add only a modest bit of incisiveness to the S-Pulse offensive buildup.
Defender Eddy Bosnar, similarly, is a player who can contribute perhaps a bit more physicality and intensity to what was a slightly suspect defensive unit, last season. But the Australian big man, picked up from JEF United over the winter break, isn’t going to transform the team into a title contender all by himself.
Fans of beautiful football should not take these comments as discouragement. On the contrary, the folks in Shizuoka can probably look forward to some of the most enjoyable football in the J1 this season. S-Pulse has a surfeit of flashy and creative players who really know how to put on a show. But even if S-Pulse does claim the honours as the most enjoyable and entertaining team of 2010, we have serious doubts about whether they have the experience, the team chemistry and the depth – particularly in defence – to overcome the likes of Grampus, Gamba, Frontale, Antlers and Reds. It is theoretically possible that the top title contenders may devote so much energy to the Asia Champions League that S-Pulse or a similar second-tier club (perhaps FC Tokyo) could sneak in and snatch the league crown. But while S-Pulse can be considered a "Dark Horse" candidate, Grampus and Reds are probably in a better position to benefit from “ACL Fatigue” than the Wingheads. Shimizu will probably have to settle for roughly the same result they achieved in each of the past three seasons.
2008 Finish: 6th Place
2009 Forecast: 4th-6th Place
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FC Tokyo -- Preseason Summary
Now that FC Tokyo has established itself as Tokyo's most popular “home team”, the club is starting to move on to the next stage of their organizational development – the progress from tough league opponent and occasional cup-winners to legitimate league champions. That step will require some far more incisive management decisions by the front office than the team has demonstrated in the past, as well as the obvious improvement in competitiveness down on the pitch. FC Tokyo’s attendances have always been relatively good; even when Tokyo Gas FC was playing at the JFL level there were often 4 or 5 thousand spectators at the old Musashino grounds. But in recent years the team has begun to generate the sort of revenue flow that can support a more aggressive policy of signing talent and building the team – the sort of strategy adopted by the Urawa Reds in the early 00s.
But before Tokyo can reach the holy grail of a league title, they will need to show better instincts – and greater ambition – in their personnel moves. This season’s trading activity provides a perfect synopsis of what Tokyo still lacks. The Kashima Antlers picked up Kyoto’s best player, and one of the league’s most reliable defenders, Lee Jong-Soo. Nagoya Grampus landed both NT icon Marcus Tulio Tanaka and flashy young prospect Mu Kanazaki. The Reds lost Tulio but made up for it by signing Sanfrecce’s wunderkind, Yosuke Kashiwagi, as well as two foreigners with extensive Bundesliga experience. Even Kaswasaki Frontale and Shimizu S-Pulse made major investments, signing Junichi Inamoto and Shinji Ono, respectively.
Meanwhile, FC Tokyo reached deep into their wallet and . . . . picked up defender Masato Morishige for a bargain price from the financially strapped Oita Trinita. That isn’t intended as a slight against Morishige, who does have great promise and a certain amount of proven talent. But even so, a team that wants to contend for the title needs to demonstrate a bit more ambition than THAT.
Under the guidance of Hiroshi Jofuku, the Terrible Tanuki have come together as a very effective, hard-working and functionally sound football team. Last season, they demonstrated a much better team understanding, as well as a huge improvement in the goal-scoring department. Players like Naohiro Ishikawa, Shingo Akamine, and even Sota Hirayama have begun to find the net with regularity. The defensive unit is extremely solid, contributing several members to the National Team, and though the midfield does not have a high-profile playmaker and “field general”, guys like Yohei Kajiyama, Naotake Hanyu, Hokuto Nakamura and young Takuji Yonemoto are all capable of chopping wood and carrying water for the strikers.
After finishing 13th in 2006 and 12th in 2007, Tokyo has made a "huge" stride forward over the past two seasons with a sixth-place finish in 2008 and a fifth-place result last year. But while the team is obviously moving in the right direction, these results still fall well short of what someone would expect from the top team in the nation's largest city. When you look at what other top teams have done to improve their title hopes, one doesnt get the impression that Tokyo is ready to vie for a league crown just yet. As we noted in our preview of Shimizu S-Pulse, second-tier teams like Tokyo and Shimizu might be able to sneak in and snatch the crown if all of Japan's ACL participants focus their main efforts on winning the Asian title. However, this scenario is not a very likely one. Although we do view Tokyo as a "possible" dark horse, we suspect that the team will finish at about the same level as last season.
2008 Finish: 5th Place
2007 Forecast: 5th-7th Place
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Vissel Kobe -- Preseason Summary
There isnt much to say about Vissel Kobe this season that we haven’t said a hundred times over the past six or seven years. Once again, Vissel managed to play 34 league matches without ever allowing to fans or sportswriters to determine who they really were. Even when a team performs poorly week after week, at least one can look at the results and conclude that changes need to be made in one area or another. But Vissel is equally capable of rising up in the heat of a title chase to crush the Kashima Antlers one week, or wilting like a cherry blossom on the pavement and succumbing to the likes of relegation victims JEF United or Oita Trinita.
Considering the loss of Kim Nam-il, as the defensive anchor in the Kobe midfield, and the lack of ANY real newcomers apart from the aging Edmilson (whose play last year suggested that he was on a mission to get Oita Trinita relegated), we think the best possible outcome for this team would be to break Yokohama FC’s record for fastest relegation ever. Until the Crimson Tide, and their unbelievably stingy “money man” Hiroshi Mikitani, are well and truly embarrassed, they are not likely to make the far-reaching changes that need to take place before this team can become something besides the token Kansai derby opponents to Gamba Osaka. This year Cerezo is back to fill that role, so who needs Kobe?
2009 Finish: 14th Place
2010 Forecast: 18th Place or bust!
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Vegalta Sendai-- Preseason Summary
The last time that Vegalta Sendai saw action in the top-flight division was seven years ago, in 2003. Every year since then, fans throughout Tohoku and even a good many sports pundits have predicted the team's impending return to the J1, and each time their hopes and dreams were dashed as the Golden Eagles of the North Country nosedived right at the end of the season and finished just short of their goal. Though Shonan Bellmare may have spent a few years more in the wilderness than Vegalta did, nobody in the country has suffered such an agonizing wait, or experienced as much heartbreak as the Sendai faithful
However, last season, after six years of disappointment, the team finally put all the pieces together and climbed back into the top flight. When you strive so long, and so hard to accomplish a particular goal, sometimes reaching it has a peculiar, dispiriting impact. It can be difficult to find the same sort of inspiration and determination that drove your efforts in the lower division. And for a team that can only be described as “marginal”, in terms of its relative competitiveness, that sort of lost initiative could easily prove fatal.
The truth is, nobody is really sure what to expect from Vegalta this season. They have lots of players with extensive J1 experience, and a reasonably good balance between offence and defence, veterans and youngsters. But they do not have any real stars apart from North Korean international Ryan Yong-gi, and the core of the team is made up of players who didn’t quite fit in anyplace else. In short, Vegalta Sendai has become the Island of Lost Boys. They may have great ambitions and dreams of fighting off the pirates or rescuing fair maidens, but it is hard to say how much they will be able to achieve in the “real world”.
As we commented in our analysis of Montedio Yamagata, some gut feeling tells this writer that one of the two Tohoku teams will return to the J2 next season. On balance, Vegalta looks to be the slightly more competitive of the two. But even if they do stay up, the Golden Eagles will probably struggle to stay aloft. And if they falter, then the scenery in 2011 will look very familiar, back in the J2.
2009 Finish: 1st Place (J2)
2010 Forecast: 15th-17th Place
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